A Cycle Interrupted

The Eight Stages describe how revolutions typically unfold: incubation of distrust, ignition of crisis, organization of moderates, rise of radicals, crisis of authority, struggle for power, reaction of moderates, and finally, a terminal resolution. Each stage feeds the next like dominos falling in sequence.

The cycle is indeterminate. Firebreaks can be built, legitimacy restored, chokepoints dispersed. The middle can be strengthened and academia protected. These interventions do not promise harmony, but they blunt escalation. They prevent sparks from spreading into infernos.

The United States of the 2020s sits precariously in the middle of the cycle. It has experienced incubation, moderation, collapse, and may be poised to enter the struggle stage. Authority has been tested, and power is openly contested. The question is whether Americans will allow the cycle to play itself out, or whether, through deliberate resilience, they can interrupt it.

History offers sobering examples of both outcomes. France in the 1790s, Russia in 1917, China in 1949, all fell to terminal transformations. But America in the 1930s, Britain in the 1970s, and Germany in the 1950s show that with reform and resilience, nations can pull back from the brink. Revolution is not inevitable, but it requires courage to build the firebreaks before the blaze.